Winning Iraq

I wasn't so optimistic in the past that the US could win in Iraq, but the Surge, the government of Iraq under Maliki and US diplomacy have moved us into position to win the war. Just a quick review of the previous obstacles.

- Anbar Province Sunni and Al Qaeda
- Northern Iraq Sunni and Al Qaeda
- Southern Iraq Shia (Basra)
- Baghdad Shia in Sadr City

The first success was with the Anbar Sunnis who had provided some of the most ferocious resistance to the US. The US negotiated a peace that allowed the tribes to become US allies against their mutual enemy - Al Qaeda. This alliance could unravel. The US must put pressure on the government of Iraq to aggressively continue the peace with the Sunnis of AnBar.

The success in Anbar allowed by the Iraq military to pursue others. The first has been the Al Qaeda forces in Barquoba and Mosul in Northern Iraq. This campaign has been on going for many months with both US forces and Iraqi Army units (many Kurdish) taking part. The word that was released from Baghdad today is that Al Qaeda is retreating from Mosul. With that word, you have to wonder where they have left to run to. Al Qaeda is running out of room.

In regard to the Shias and the opposition of Moqtada Al-Sadr, the Iraq government started an offensive in March which seemed like it was doomed to failure with police and military units refusing to fight against their Shia brothers. After the initial failures, the Iraq government has established themselves in Basra and in Moqtada Al-Sadr's capital in Baghdad - Sadr City. The government is now in the position to raid military caches and militant Shias of Moqtada in Basra and Baghdad. This will probably break out again in open warfare but with Al Qaeda being flushed out of Northern Iraq, the Iraq army will be in even a better position to handle Moqtada Al-Sadr.

The funny thing about the US is they always seem ready to pull out when things are just about to break their way. There may be some real curves still to come in Iraq but the US is on the edge of victory. I think by November even Obama will realize that he doesn't have too much of an issue anymore. In addition, his previous election comments about the war will look quite naive and shortsighted. I have to give John McCain credit for sticking with the war even though he disagreed with how the war was conducted up to the surge. When everyone else was running. He was "country when country wasn't cool."

Should the US have fought the war. I think everyone would agree the answer is no. But with victory so close, now is not the time to run away from the problems that we have created.