The Palestinian and Irish Insurgency

Those following international news may have noticed the violence among the Palestinians. The Palestinians have broken into two nationalistic sides: pragmatists, led by Fatah, and the purists, led by Hamas. The two sides are now at each other’s throats after the Israeli evacuation. Interestingly to me, the Palestinian division is similar to the division that occurred in the 1920s between the Irish parties in their efforts to agree on a relationship with their former occupier – Great Britain. Both Irish and Palestinian nationalistic movements had been unified comrades in arms against a perceived occupier. Both movements were divided internally over the terms of the negotiation with their former occupier. By going into a little of the background of the Irish conflict, it may be helpful in understanding what may happen to the Palestinians and the how the US and Western democracies can best facilitate a positive outcome.

Irish Civil War

In 1921, the Irish insurgents were led by an Irish-American, Eamonn De Valera. After years of warfare the British were ready to negotiate. At De Valera’s insistence Michael Collins, the IRA director of Intelligence, negotiated the Anglo-Irish treaty to end the war against British rule in Ireland on behalf of the Irish insurgents. De Valera refused to take a direct part in the negotiations and then rejected the Michael Collins negotiated treaty as a sell-out to the British. The majority of the Irish nationalist disagreed and supported Michael Collins and the treaty. By his acceptance of the treaty and victory in the polls, Michael Collins became the new leader of the Irish Free State. In April1922, Anti-Treaty IRA forces occupied the Four Courts in Dublin without De Valera’s approval. Winston Churchill, the British Secretary for War and Air, threatened to reoccupy Ireland unless Michael Collins acted against the IRA troops in the Four Courts. In June 1922, the Free State Army attacked the Anti-Treaty IRA troops at the Four Courts, starting the Irish Civil War.

Eight months later, using more aggressive tactics than the British, the Free State army totally defeated the Anti-Treaty forces. Most Anti-Treaty troops surrendered, including De Valera. But the war had other consequences. Irish nationalist loyalties would be divided by this war for more than a generation. Michael Collins, the leader of the pragmatists, had been killed in an Anti-Treaty ambush near his home town. The new Irish Free State had been loaned money for the war by the British government. With much of Irish Free State economically wasted, the Free State government did not have the means to make payment on its debt.

Facing Reality in Gaza

“The (Israeli) experiment was a success: The Palestinians are killing each other. They are behaving as expected at the end of the extended experiment called "what happens when you imprison 1.3 million human beings in an enclosed space like battery hens.”

As exhibited above, the knee-jerk Palestinian reaction to the recent violence in Gaza is to blame Israel. This simple analysis leaves out the greatest danger to Palestinians - themselves. Now that the occupation by Israel has been mostly removed, the internal divisions have become pronounced. The hatred for Israel which consumed the nationalists is gradually turning toward their former brothers. The disregard for life that once only attended the life of Israeli civilians is starting to be unleashed against Palestinians civilians. Will the Palestinians follow the pattern of Ireland and turn towards civil war?

The descent into violence will depend on the leadership of both Fatah and Hamas. The conflict can only be avoided if both sides are truly dedicated to a peace. In the case of the Irish conflict, Michael Collins was fully committed to avoiding the conflict, but the Anti-Treaty party, who had extracted concessions from the British by violence, believed that this method could be successful again.

In the case of the Palestinians, it is unclear if either side really is committed to or capable of healing the breach. The Hamas leadership is divided both by geography and goals. Its government leaders are in Gaza and its party leadership are in Damascus. Fatah is also divided between the exiles who returned with Arafat and the younger domestic organization. In my estimation, even assuming the leadership of both parties desired a peaceful negotiated settlement, neither organization is internally strong enough to make a compromise which might make it appear weak to the electorate.

My assumption is that a civil war will break out after multiple futile ceasefires. Israel will undoubtedly back Fatah against the pro-Iranian and Syrian Hamas government. The Western democracies’ best interest will also be in favor of a Fatah victory, but this must be done discretely and respectfully. In the aftermath of a Fatah victory, Israel will probably use its position in the conflict to force a treaty on the Palestinians that will minimize its own internal political problems. The Western democracies must not allow Israel to misuse Palestinian weakness to impose such a treaty. The US and the Western democracies must support the Palestinians in any post-war negotiations and economic recovery so Palestinian self-interest is protected. If the US, in particular, goes along with Israel another parallel to the Irish Civil War may occur.

Pragmatist Win the War and the Lose the Election

Five years after De Valera was released by the Irish Free State, De Valera and his party, Fianna Fail, were voted into power. The British had overplayed their hand by using the debt owed by the Free State government as a hammer to gain concessions. The Irish populace revolted against the party of Michael Collins and put De Valera’s party in power for much of modern history. Today, De Valera’s party, Fianna Fail, is still in power.

Hamas will be crushed in any civil war with Fatah. Once the war is ignited, it will take place over several months and will be brutal. The real danger for Fatah will come with its military victory and the destruction of their foes. Can it forge a way forward with Israel and the Western governments while maintaining their support among the Palestinian people? If not, Hamas may lose the war but may eventually win the peace.

"When you have sweated, toiled, had mad dreams, hopeless nightmares, you find yourself in London's streets, cold and dank in the night air. Think - what have I got for Ireland? Something which she has wanted these past seven hundred years. Will anyone be satisfied at the bargain? Will anyone? I tell you this; early this morning I signed my death warrant. I thought at the time how odd, how ridiculous — a bullet may just as well have done the job five years ago" (Michael Collins in a letter to his friend after signing the Anglo-Irish Treaty)